Climate Change in the Pacific: State of Emergency

As outlined in a previous post, “Climate Change in the Pacific:  Help we’re drowning,” Pacific islands are bearing the first clear environmental shifts of global climate change.  Not only are the islands being threatened by rising sea levels, their territory and societies ‘drowning’ in the process; but, climate change is combining with other environmental conditions to jeopardize the essential fresh water sources that these insular societies depend on.

On October 2011, the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu declared a national state of emergency.   The emergency is that the country’s fresh water sources are running out and others are unfit for consumption.  Some areas of the island were projected to completely run out of potable, fresh water within two days of the declaration.  The conditions that led to the state of emergency are related to the longer term climate changes, but also to seasonal shifts.  A seasonal, La Niña weather pattern has been causing drought in Tuvalu.  Below-average rainfall has been experienced since June or at least and is projected to continue into December.  Most of the country’s fresh water supply comes from collected rainwater.  Another source of freshwater lies under the ground.  Yet, this source is limited.  Tuvalu is a series of low-lying coral atolls.  The geology of coral atolls does not support deep groundwater sources.  Further, the shallow groundwater that is found on these islands is being compromised by rising sea levels as salt water infiltrates the groundwater supply.  A reporting of animals deaths leads Tuvaluan Red Cross officials to question the safety of the groundwater supply for consumption.  Considering the nature of groundwater recharge, and most acute in Tuvalu, the lack of rainfall is accelerating the infiltration of seawater into subterranean water features.  The impacts of water shortages are felt in the islands’ traditional subsistence agriculture activities as well as water rationing affecting basic water services.  Tuvalu’s neighbor and New Zealand territory, Tokelau followed up soon after with its own state of emergency declaration.

The relief is coming from international organizations like the Red Cross as well as from the government of New Zealand.  The people of Tuvalu and Tokelau are being aided with water collection supplies, desalinization units and plenty of bottled water.  The larger affects are still yet to come.  In particular, questions about the long-term settlement of many low-lying Pacific islands have implications for nationhood, cultural traditions, economic rights, and logistics of mass migration.

 

What’s That Got to Do with the Price of Coffee Beans?

I give a lot of public presentations about coffee, usually focused on the millions of farmers around the world who are reliant on this commodity for an often meager livelihood. My talks may also cover the proper preparation of coffee, my regular travel with students to Nicaragua, and even the development of a sense of place at the corner café.

During the question and answer period at the end of each talk, I usually get asked one of two questions: “What do you think of Starbucks?” and “What do you think of Dunkin’ Donuts?” The polite answer is the former appears slightly more concerned about the lives of farmers than the latter, and the only large, conventional farm I have been allowed to visit was a Starbucks “Cafe Practice” farm.

When the retail price of coffee is rising — as it is now — price becomes the main area of curiosity. To the question of why prices are rising, my initial inclination has been to answer “I don’t care,” because it usually is not very important. A 10 or 20 percent increase in the wholesale price of coffee would not make a significant difference in the household budget of even the most avid coffee drinker, and the chances of such an increase being transferred to a farm family (where it actually would make a difference) are nil.

So the topic did not interest me until late 2010, when the price increases at the wholesale level became substantial enough that some farmers did start to know about it. The first thing I noticed was that the price was rising so rapidly that some “coyotes” — often unscrupulous middlemen who tend to control local coffee markets — were often able to exceed fair-trade prices.  What could be a very good bargain for farmers in the short term, however, was starting to undermine cooperatives that had taken years to establish. When the price of coffee falls in the future, the farmers may be without an organization to secure prices that meet the costs of production.

In the dominant free-trade model, commodity prices tend to fluctuate, as high prices draw producers and low prices draw consumers in a perpetual see-saw of demand and supply. Conventionally economists recognize the risk inherent in reliance on commodity income in such a circumstance, but it was the distinct contribution of Raúl Prebisch to demonstrate the dependency that arises from the secular decline of commodity prices relative to the prices of manufactured goods over the long term. The “earnings” line in the hypothetical cartoon below models the random fluctuation predicted by conventional economics; the “purchasing power” line models the combination of short-term random fluctuations and long-term decline that dependency theory predicts for commodity producers.

The combination of volatility, long-term decline in terms of trade, and specific historic circumstances led to the severe 1999 coffee crisis, which displaced many thousands of farm families. Some are calling the current, rapid price increases a “second coffee crisis,” because of the dynamic mentioned above that threatens the cohesion of local cooperatives.

California coffee buyer Max Nicholas-Fulmer offers the clearest explanation I have seen for the quick run-up in coffee prices. His January 2011 post on the Royal Coffee blog has, in fact, been republished widely, including on Coffee Buzz and in The Specialty Coffee Chronicle (2011n3).

The article offers several reasons for the increase in the price of coffee futures. The first is that single-origin specialty coffees are beginning to command substantial premiums that in turn are bringing up prices for futures on all Arabica coffees. Second, coffee yields and coffee quality are greatly dependent on consistent climate conditions, and for those conditions to be found in the same locations as specific properties of soil and topography. Nicholas-Fulmer gives several examples of the uncertainty in rainfall and its timing that are resulting from climate change. Finally, he describes the impact of suburban sprawl, which is no longer limited to industrial countries. Even in many coffee-producing countries of the global south, automobile-dependent growth puts farmland in direct competition with suburban land markets, enticing many to leave what has become an unprofitable land use.

As he wrote in January, coffee Certified Stocks (the “C” Market) were trading at $2.45 in New York, the highest it had been since the 1997 bubble, when it had reached $3.20. As I write today, it is even higher, at $2.70, so Nicholas-Fulmer’s observations appear to be relevant for the foreseeable future.

Suggested activities:

1. To learn about the relative prices of coffee at each stage of the commodity chain,  play Kelly Whalen’s game Your Coffee Dollar, which is on the web site for the PBS-Frontline program on coffee in Mexico and Guatemala. The low values the game ascribes to coffee growers are actually optimistic — close to 97 percent of coffee is sold in conventional markets that tend to pay growers even less that the amounts suggested in this exercise.

2. Visit a local, independent coffee shop and inquire about where the coffee comes from, whether price fluctuations are affecting the shop, and how much the staff knows about the production areas of the coffee.

Concept Caching: Glacier Bay

From our Concept Caching image cache that hopes to promote student spatial awareness by relating specific features on the Earth’s surface with their visual character and GPS coordinates. Through the site photographs and GPS coordinates demonstrate core concepts in geography.  Images are “cached” for viewing by core concept and by region.  Images are certainly useful for introducing visual content to students in all Geography classes.

Climate change, climate change, climate change.  It certainly bears repeating, if a refrain leads to awareness.  This seems like the dominant discourse to engendering climate change awareness.  Climate change will have (and is having) wide-reaching consequences, some we can predict and many others we cannot.  And of stories of affected landscapes, the high-elevation and high-latitude environments are the most often mentioned.  The post, Geography Directions: Permafrost, carbon and thermokarsts: the Arctic importance offers a slightly different spin on the hackneyed talk of glacial melt.  Instead of continuing to focus on the changes in quintessential landscapes-under-threat, like this one of Glacier Bay, Alaska, the article discusses carbon storage processes in periglacial landscapes.  By focusing on periglacial carbon storage, the article provides another avenue for understanding the Earth’s Carbon Cycle.  Further, periglacial landscapes are also undergoing transformation; however, these areas are also landscapes of human settlement and activity.  If periglacial, permafrost and thermokarsts aren’t sexy enough, then subsiding lands, sinking buildings, and trucks mired in mud should offer some tantalizing bases for climate change mitigation.

 

Geography Directions: Permafrost, carbon and thermokarsts: the Arctic importance

From our Geography Directions site reviewing Wiley-Blackwell’s Geography Compass review journal covering the entire discipline.  Keep up with cutting edge academic geography.  These articles may be useful for introducing students to the discipline or may be appropriate for upper division Geography classes.

The Arctic covers 5% of the total land mass of the earth and reaches across every longitude: it is important. It is estimated that 1.4 times more carbon is stored in permafrost than is currently circulating in the atmosphere, and there is 1.5 times more carbon in permafrost than is currently being stored in all the earth’s vegetation. William Bowden (2010) outlines this in a Geography Compass article, and explains the relationships between permafrost, thermokarsts and climate change.

Permafrost is soil or rock which remains below 0^oC for at least 2-3 years at a time. When permafrost thaws it loses its internal structure and subsides unevenly, and the resulting formation is called thermokarst. The transition from permafrost to thermokarst has important hydrological, geomorphological, biogeochemical and ecological importance to arctic landscapes. Globally, this transition may also release the stored carbon which, due to microbial processes, may be released as carbon dioxide or methane.

In April, a special edition on climate change was published by the journal, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. It outlined key research questions required to better understand the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change. The arctic was prominently featured, and in particular the concern over permafrost melt and potential methane release. Scientists seem to agree that research is needed to understand the transitional process from permafrost to thermokarsts and the possible implications on the global climate.

By Caitlin Douglas

To view the original article please visit the Geography Directions Blog.

 

Geography Directions: Eat to be healthy and save the planet

From our Geography Directions site reviewing Wiley-Blackwell’s Geography Compass review journal covering the entire discipline.  Keep up with cutting edge academic geography.  These articles may be useful for introducing students to the discipline or may be appropriate for upper division Geography classes.

It is well documented that around the world pristine environments are being destroyed to produce some of the food that we eat in the United Kingdom. For instance, the Brazilian savannah or Cerrado is currently being destroyed faster than the Amazon; this is largely due to soy production (most of which is fed to the animals we eat), beef and other agriculture. A further example is that of Borneo whose tropical forests are being cleared to plant palm trees to produce palm oil for biscuits and fish fingers. If everyone in the world lived as we do in the UK we would require two planets by 2030. But now we may be able to save the planet over lunch. Researchers believe that we can and they say that if we all ate what they would like to see on our plates, Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by a quarter, our meat consumption would be reduced drastically and we would be a lot healthier at the same time.  All this comes in the guise of the Livewell Diet, which is a weekly menu assembled by nutritionists, which sets out the best ingredients to balance healthy eating with sustainable food production. The average weekly cost of the diet would be £29 per person.

At present an estimated 79kg of meat a year are consumed by the average UK resident and the Livewell 2020 diet is expected to reduce this to 10kg a year; thus reducing the pressure on natural resources.  Scientists from the Rowett Institute of Nutrition and Health at Aberdeen University have produced the diet commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) which is designed to be familiar and normal. The diet is based on nutritional guidelines from the government for eating healthily. It will also help us meet the 2020 targets for greenhouse gas reductions, as laid out the in UK Climate Change Act by steering away from processed food (whose environmental impacts are due to their extra production, packaging, transportation and energy consumption) and meat.

For a more complete discussion and explanation of the complicated interplay between  human diet, energy, climate change, the financial crisis and the socially and environmentally unsustainable grain–livestock relationship it is recommended to read, Energy, Climate Change, Meat, and Markets: Mapping the Coordinates of the Current World Food Crisis in the Geography Compassjournal. In the meantime the WWF will lobby the government and the food industry to use the Livewell diet as a blueprint and if we just adapt our diets slightly by eating less meat and fewer processed foods, and replacing them with more fruit, vegetables and grains, we’ll be making a positive difference for ourselves and the planet.

By Paulette Cully

To view the original article please visit the Geography Directions Blog.

Geography Directions: The Dilemma of Global Energy

From our Geography Directions site reviewing Wiley-Blackwell’s Geography Compass review journal covering the entire discipline.  Keep up with cutting edge academic geography.  These articles may be useful for introducing students to the discipline or may be appropriate for upper division Geography classes.

A recent article in the December Geographical Journal by Michael Bradshaw entitled “Global energy dilemmas: a geographical
perspective”, examines the relationship between global energy security and climate change policy. With growing concerns about the sustainability of the future supply of hydrocarbons and the fact that they are the single largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, decarbonising the way energy is produced is a key component of climate change policy. The central proposition of the paper is that as the world faces a global energy dilemma can we have a secure, reliable and affordable supply of energy and at the same time, manage the changeover to a low-carbon energy system? The paper considers the present-day challenges to global energy security, and focuses on the possibility that future oil production might not be able to meet demand. It also looks at how the dangers of climate change are forcing us to rethink the meaning of energy security such that a low-carbon energy revolution is now called for. In addition, the paper explains that while the developed world is principally responsible for the anthropogenic carbon emissions in the atmosphere, a global shift in energy demand is underway and over the next 20 years it is the developing world that will contribute an ever-increasing amount of global emissions. The article also looks at global energy relationships explaining how the processes of globalisation are the driving force behind the shift in energy demand and carbon emissions. Finally, Bradshaw explains how the global energy quandary plays itself out in different ways across the globe.

Shedding further light on the future of fossil fuels, a report published in the same month by Deloitte’s Global Energy & Resources group, “The Oil and Gas Reality Check 2011, a look at 10 of the top issues facing the oil sector” analyses the oil and gas trends and issues for the coming year. The issues range from deepwater drilling, where the next alternative energy source will be found and the growing influence of Asia on the industry. According to the report it is estimated that oil and gas will continue to constitute the world’s primary energy supply for the next 25 years. It explains how Asia’s share in the growth in demand for hydrocarbons has risen substantially while that of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the European Union has declined. This shift has been caused by high rates of economic growth and increasing populations in many Asian countries. Simultaneously, up to three billion people in developing nations will have bought cars and adopted middle class consumption patterns by 2030. This suggests that more fossil fuels will be needed despite the fact that alternative forms of energy such as wind and solar have grown rapidly. In the meantime oil and gas producers feel they are a bridge to the new energy economy.

By Paulette Cully

To view the original article please visit the Geography Directions Blog.

Concept Caching: Global Warming and the Maldives

From our Concept Caching image cache that hopes to promote student spatial awareness by relating specific features on the Earth’s surface with their visual character and GPS coordinates. Through the site photographs and GPS coordinates demonstrate core concepts in geography.  Images are “cached” for viewing by core concept and by region.  Images are certainly useful for introducing visual content to students in all Geography classes.

As a counterpoint to the question asked in the post Geography Directions: Can we ‘prove’ climate change? is the more worrisome question of what can we do to mitigate the changes that are no doubt occurring.  Insular countries like the Maldives would indeed consider that the “million dollar question.”  This image illustrates the impact that global climate change, and the possibility of a significant rise in global sea levels, would have on the survival and existence of certain landscapes and landforms.

Geography Directions: Can we ‘prove’ climate change?

From our Geography Directions site reviewing Wiley-Blackwell’s Geography Compass review journal covering the entire discipline.  Keep up with cutting edge academic geography.  These articles may be useful for introducing students to the discipline or may be appropriate for upper division Geography classes.

Referring to the ongoing heatwave in Russia and floods in Pakistan, a broadsheet newspaper recently printed an article with the headline “Disasters ‘prove that global warming is happening’.” The article was reproduced on the internet, with the more cautious title “global warming could be the cause.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees that extreme events like these are consistent with climate trends. However, global warming refers to long term climatic trends over periods of decades. Heatwaves and flooding, however extreme, are short term weather events. They do no more to ‘prove’ global warming than heavy snowfall across the UK in January ‘disproves’ it.

Extreme events have always happened. What we’re concerned about are long term trends in climate, which might make these sorts of events more common. But we can’t wait around for these trends to play out over decades before concluding that we have observed ‘proof’: by then it will be far too late to mitigate any damage already caused. So what constitutes scientific proof?

In a paper in Area, Greg O’Hare reviewed the uncertainties in climate science, ranging from measurement errors in data collection to simplifications introduced into computer models. The world’s climate system is complex and our knowledge and ability to measure it is incomplete. Scientists can only draw interpretations about climate change from the available evidence, albeit using increasingly sophisticated techniques such as computer models. Linking observations with the process of climate change is, therefore, an uncertain business.

Scientific research is inherently uncertain (if we were sure, there would be no point to research). While scientists can do their best to quantify and reduce uncertainty, the level of uncertainty that we are willing to accept when making decisions is a question for policy makers and wider society.

By I-Hsien Porter

To view the original article please visit the Geography Directions Blog.

Interconnections amid the floodwaters of Pakistan

The devastating floods that have inundated most of Pakistan over the summer provide plenty of opportunity for a sobering look at the interconnections between climate, politics, economy, and society, across scales.  Outside of the aid and trade questions that have been raised among the international community in helping Pakistan recover, there have been other interesting connections that can be discussed in many geography classes.

For many following this story, it seemed to begin with the torrential monsoon rains.  However, the actual events began with drought.  Below average rainfall levels were experienced in 2009 and as of early July 2010 they were expected to worsen.  National Geographic released a series of photos titled, “Amid Drought, Pakistan Prays for Rain.” And come the end of July, their prayers were answered.

Only a few weeks after the National Geographic photos, torrential monsoon rains begin to engulf Northern Pakistan, the very area shown to be stricken in the photos.  The levels of rainfall in just a few weeks broke records for the last 100 years.  Early on, there were cautionary words for the stressed Pakistani government, already fighting insurgency and coping with other domestic disasters, as they began to appeal to the international community for aid.  Following the initial rains, Pakistan was hit by high temperatures and continued rains that caused additional flooding and landslides.

For a developing world infrastructure, already uneven and inconsistent, the magnitude of destruction during and following the floods proved immense.  The first reports profiled the human devastation as thousands of people were killed and millions made homeless.  Included in these reports were the effects on livelihoods, as entire villages and towns, agricultural fields and livestock herds, food stores, and essential transport and social networks of roads, hospitals, etc., were wiped out.  The widespread damage is seen to set back the Pakistani infrastructure by many years.

For survivors, they were challenged with the day to day battle for food, limited by actual provisions or by rising food prices.  Limited access to clean water was leading to dehydration and dangers of water-borne disease.  The lack of shelter saw many flood victims exposed to the sun, high temperatures, disease-bearing insects and poisonous snakes.  The largest at-risk group of survivors are the millions of Pakistani children who are incredibly vulnerable to disease and malnutrition.  Continued rains on top of existing destruction meant survivors had to improvise transport and had to continue moving from one flood-ravaged area to the next.  The spreading impact of the floods and of survivors led to renewed fears over the future food and livelihoods of much larger populations.

Amid the devastation, some reports focused entirely on the destabilizing affects of such a natural disaster, in the already delicate stability of a place like Pakistan.  Much of this potential destabilization was shared between two foci:  the government and the Taliban.  The recovery was argued as the “Last Chance for Pakistan” being the “gravest security crisis” to be faced by the country and the South Asia region.  There were discrimination accusations of aid being delivered first to certain party supporters or wealthy landowners diverting floodwaters from their own fields to others’.  Out of this disarray, it was reported that the Taliban in Pakistan were able to regroup to the degree that considered targeting the already under-resourced aid workers in the country.  In the last few weeks after the flooding, the same problems remain, yet political in-fighting on how to move forward and who should act is now worse than ever.  This has led some to argue that it is the civil-military elite in the Pakistani government that have hindered international aid and that should be relieved of their duties in leading the recovery.  Ultimately, the appeals for international aid have been made on behalf of political stability, fighting insurgency, and also in mitigating the effects of climate change.

Through the drama of Pakistan’s natural disaster, issues of environment and society can be discussed in geography classes.  In physical geography courses, the discussion can focus on big scale issues of climate change and increasing extreme weather events, or can be smaller scale in illustrating flood plain events, like 100- and 500-year events.  In human geography courses, the discussion may venture into economic and social development, political structures, inequality, and the consequences of these for certain cultural/social groups, or overall recovery.  In world regional courses, the discussion can weave these issues together looking at the many human-environment interactions within the country, but also investigate global connections among security, international aid, and sovereignty.

As if this event was not powerful enough in black and white print, there have been many accompanying photo reports.  They add a greater significance to in-class discussions allowing students to visually identify the magnitude of the flooding, destruction and human devastation that these reports entail.  Photojournals have been posted by the Huffington Post, NPR, NPR’s The Two-Way blog, NPR’s Picture Show blog, and National Geographic.  NPR has also produced an interactive map detailing the extent of the floods in Pakistan’s four provinces, providing links to images and videos.

Discussion Questions:

1. Identify what climate region is Pakistan and the Indus River included in and what other climate regions border it?  How might this climate position explain the cycles of drought, monsoon rains, and flooding stages that have been seen in the 2010 Pakistan Floods?
2. Review some of the articles discussing the extent and effects of the Pakistan flooding.  What do these impacts tell us about the economic and social development in Pakistan, and in South Asia?  Think about infrastructure and settlement, population and poverty, and gender equity, among others.
3. What is the primary economic activity in Pakistan?  In what ways is it already environmentally vulnerable?  How has this vulnerability informed issues related to food security and development?  What additional vulnerabilities are revealed in the 2010 Pakistan Flood event?
4. What are some of the global concerns that hinge on Pakistan’s political security?  How are arguments over aid or trade in Pakistan’s recovery aimed at serving global security concerns?

Hopes for World Forests

Deforestation has long been a troubling global trend that has affected most of Earth’s arboreal environments.  Discussions of this topic may often focus on the economic and agricultural reasons for the destruction of forestlands.  Juxtaposed are the greedy corporations and illegal loggers against indigent subsistence farmers desperate for land.  Either way, the discussion ends as so many talks of 21^st century environmental problems often do: disheartened and despondent.  However, there has been much recent buzz in the media related to deforestation, and some of it actually hopeful.

A Newsweek article believes that Haiti’s economic recovery may be contingent upon the recovery of its forest lands.  Haiti’s trees have long been mowed down by colonizers, plantations, industry and locals alike.  It is hoped that reforestation will ultimately help to minimize the impact of natural disasters, like hurricanes and floods, and to restore nutrients to overworked agricultural lands.

On a global scale, recent policies of developing countries have made a concerted effort to remove illegally logged wood from world markets.  The New York Times Green blog reports on the European Parliament’s bill cracking down on timber from illegal logging.  Other countries from the developing world like Nigeria and Ghana to the developed world like the United States have previously contributed to fining or banning wood logged illicitly.

In particular, it is the Amazon that many environmentalists lay their hopes on.  The New York Times Dot Earth blog reports on the optimism that comes with Brazil’s current demographic and economic development trajectories and with restoration and preservation efforts of environmentalists on the ground.  The Amazon has also been the subject of a year-long study conducted by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (also reported with accompanying images at Surrey Satellite Technology LTD’s Space Blog).  They analyzed satellite images of the region which revealed a slowing of deforestation rates as compared with previous years.

The link between the world’s forests and possible climate change should also be discussed in any deforestation dialogue.  Earth scientists have long been studying the carbon cycle and tracking the ways that carbon is found in active and inactive stores throughout the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere.  One of the global scale puzzle pieces to this study has now been provided by NASA satellites as they mapped world tree heights.  CNN argues that this will aid in tracking world forest carbon and study the ability of world forests to continue to take up atmospheric carbon. This map will also help to produce models to understand forest fires, ecosystems, and more.

A succinct article provided by the New York Times Green blog titled, “Is the tide turning on deforestation?” is suitable for most undergrad students and sums up these hopeful developments well.  Combine that with a recent BBC News article that reports the findings of the London-based think tank Chatham House observing a marked decline in illegal logging and discusses the major contributions to that trend.

However hopeful, this deforestation discussion should also end with a sobering dose of reality:  reiterating that deforestation, especially at the hand of illegal logging, is still a harrowing global problem.

Discussion Questions:

1. How might economic recovery connect to reforestation in the example of Haiti?  Explain the benefits of reforestation and how they will contribute to economic gains.

2. Suggest comparisons or contrasts of the policies against illegal logging between the developing world and developed world.  Think about production/consumption and source/destination streams, as well as underlying motivations at various scales.

3. How will the mapping of world tree heights help scientists to track carbon and understand climate change?

4. What hopeful trend countering deforestation do you think will make the most difference and why?  Do you have any other suggestions for what the global community can do to help save the world’s forests?

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